[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121242
SWODY1
SPC AC 121240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A POSITION EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY SWWD
INTO CENTRAL OK AND WEST TX AT 11Z.  CONSIDERABLE COLD/DENSE SURFACE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER STEADY SSEWD MOTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...DESPITE THE SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL/SERN NM ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NERN TX AND SERN MO BY THE
EARLY EVENING.  A SSWLY LLJ WILL BE SUSTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF TX
POINTING INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THE
SWRN DESERTS.  RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF
WRN/CENTRAL TX ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THIS BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION...LOCALLY ENHANCING RAINFALL AND
FREEZING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.  ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
INHIBITING FACTORS FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TODAY. 
HOWEVER...INCREASE FETCH OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /I.E. SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60SF/ AND TEMPERED AFTERNOON HEATING MAY STILL
SUPPORT AREAS OF MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL
SURFACE BASED CIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER 40-50 KT
SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS.  THUS...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
SHALLOW COLD FRONT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN/CENTRAL TX.

..EVANS.. 01/12/2007