[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081626
SWODY1
SPC AC 081624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST MON JAN 08 2007

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS
MORNING WITH A FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE WRN U.S.  LAST IN A SERIES
OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXS WILL BE MOVING SEWD FROM THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD WHICH WILL
ESCORT THE ERN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE NERN/MID ATLANTIC REGIONS BY
09/12Z.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
THROUGH ERN NEW YORK STATE AND ERN NC THEN SWWD ACROSS NRN FL. 
FRONT SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE BY 09/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SRN HALF OF FL WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT.

...ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...

LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS REMAINDER OF ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND WELL OFFSHORE ALREADY.  THUS...LOOKS LIKE ANY THUNDER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN THRU 18Z AND THEN DECREASE RAPIDLY
AFTERWARDS AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE
OUTER BANKS.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS FL HAS ALSO DECREASED
RAPIDLY AS DYNAMIC FORCING HAS ALREADY SWUNG NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND
WITH SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE KEEPING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
AT/NEAR 5880 M AT THIS TIME.

THUS...LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW/INSTABILITY SHOULD INHIBIT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

..MCCARTHY.. 01/08/2007