[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 052001
SWODY1
SPC AC 051959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN STATES...

...SERN STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MS/AL.  STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WAS SUPPORTING A LINEAR MCS FROM UPSTATE SC SWD INTO THE
NERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LINE...AND DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE
LINE...HAVE BEEN INCREASING SINCE 18Z.  THIS UPSWING IN INTENSITY
MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS BEGINNING TO SWING NEWD
INTO THE FL PNHDL/SWRN GA AT MID-AFTN.  IN FACT...18Z MESOANALYSIS
PLACED A PRESSURE FALL AXIS FROM NRN FL INTO SERN GA AND SUGGESTED
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WAS BECOMING SUPPORTIVE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
ORGANIZED TSTMS.

INVERSION NOTED JUST BELOW 750 MB IN THE 18Z CHS SOUNDING WILL
LIKELY BE ERODED AS THE STRONGER UVVS SPREAD NEWD.  BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS BECOME UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MID 70S/MID 60S RESPECTIVELY.  AS THE MID-LEVELS COOL...THE COLUMN
WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  AS A RESULT...THE LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS ECNTRL GA TO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STRONG AS IT SWEEPS ENEWD INTO PARTS OF NC/SC...SERN GA AND NRN FL
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS NOT WEAKENED AS SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS MODELS. 
AS A RESULT...MID-LEVEL WINDS HAVE REMAINED QUITE STRONG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
 THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BOTH AHEAD OF AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LINEAR MCS.  SMALL SCALE BOWS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.  ADDITIONALLY...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN GA AND PARTS OF SC WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT BACKED VCNTY THE STRONGER PRESSURE
FALLS.

..RACY.. 01/05/2007