[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041955
SWODY1
SPC AC 041952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST THU JAN 04 2007

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

...CNTRL/WRN GULF COASTAL AREA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CNTRL TX UPPER LOW WAS
BEGINNING TO EJECT ENEWD IN AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT
ORIENTATION.  DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENT REGIME AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAS
SUPPORTING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GULF
COASTAL AREA NWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH.  

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING OVER NWRN LA AND THE 1010 HPA SFC
LOW VCNTY KSHV SHOULD MIGRATE NEWD TOWARD THE KMEM VCNTY LATER THIS
EVE.  JUST ABOVE THE SFC...A STRONG H9-H8 SLY LLJ EXISTED JUST AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONT FROM SRN LA INTO NWRN MS.  BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
GRADUALLY MODIFIED WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN LA VCNTY
KPOE EWD TO JUST S OF THE KMSY AREA.  TO THE S OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 70/MID 60S DEG F
RESPECTIVELY.  MODIFIED 18Z SLIDELL RAOB SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVE...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN LA
AND EXTREME SRN PARTS OF MS/AL WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 500 J PER
KG.  

ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIST IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. 
THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS STORMS
APPROACH AND CROSS OVER THE WARM FRONT...SFC-BASED STORMS DEVIATING
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW WILL OBTAIN 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250
MS/S2.  THUS...A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR.  THESE SEVERE THREATS
WILL EXTEND E INTO THE EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL BY 12Z.  

FARTHER N...THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCUR.  TSTMS THIS FAR N WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
SFC...MITIGATING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOES.

..RACY.. 01/04/2007