[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031956
SWODY1
SPC AC 031954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST WED JAN 03 2007

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE
NEARLY ZONAL NRN STREAM FLOW FROM PACIFIC NW EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND.  SRN STREAM CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN MEX -- IS FCST TO PIVOT ENEWD ACROSS BIG
BEND REGION OF SW TX AND ADJACENT SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE OF NRN
MEX.  AS ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER TROUGH APCHS S TX AND NWRN GULF...SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST OFFSHORE BRO...INVOF INFLECTION POINT ON SFC
FRONT.  THIS LOW SHOULD LIFT NEWD TOWARD UPPER TX COAST...AND MAY
REACH COAST AT OR SHORTLY AFTER END OF PERIOD. 

...S TX...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS ALREADY ARE EVIDENT
FROM N-CENTRAL MEX NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN...CENTRAL AND E TX. 
ERN-MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG FARTHEST INLAND AND
MOST HIGHLY ELEVATED REACHES OF LOW LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME
-- WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS PORTIONS ARKLATEX REGION TO LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...AVAILABLE BUOYANCY
ALOFT AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH
OF S TX AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ABOVE SFC...LAPSE RATES
STRENGTHEN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...AND 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAISES PARCELS TO LFC.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO ROTATE ALOFT...ENHANCING
HAIL POTENTIAL.  

AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT -- NE OF SFC LOW -- WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS..SFC DEW POINTS MID
60S TO NEAR 70 F...AND ENOUGH SFC THETAE TO SUPPORT MLCAPES 500-1000
J/KG.  MOST OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...HOWEVER
CONDITIONAL TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND RISK EXISTS LATE TONIGHT NEAR
MID/UPPER TX COAST...BASED ON MRGL POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FRONT TO
REACH SHORE BEFORE 4/12Z.

..EDWARDS.. 01/03/2007