[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST WED JAN 03 2007

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST TX OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE
DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN AND UPWARD FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LOW LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT SURFACE LOW
WILL LIE VERY NEAR THE COAST.  AIR MASS JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S LIKELY OVERNIGHT. 
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW /MLCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG/.  IF WARM SECTOR
CAN MOVE INLAND...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.  THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT
APPEARS VERY LIMITED IN TEMPORAL AND AREAL EXTENT...SO WILL ONLY
MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TX
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY
OVER THE FL PENINSULA WHERE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IS PRESENT.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE COAST OF WA.  NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

..HART.. 01/03/2007