[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141936
SWODY1
SPC AC 141934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST WED FEB 14 2007

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...
SOUTHERN...LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AREA.  THIS IS WHERE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND PROBABILITIES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE HIGHEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  THIS INCLUDES THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COLORADO...WHERE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE BY
21-23Z...ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING TO
THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...FLORIDA KEYS...
LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS
NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT STILL NORTH OF THE KEYS...WHERE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENT ZONE COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENT REGIME ALOFT TO THE
SOUTH OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO CAP MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..KERR.. 02/14/2007