From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 3 15:53:56 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2007 10:53:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 031558 SWODY1 SPC AC 031556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CST SAT FEB 03 2007 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... BROAD COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH COLD AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY IS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION... PARALLEL AND NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK CAPE. ...GREAT LAKES... VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO EXIST ALONG THE WINDWARD COASTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO COLD/DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS. ..HART.. 02/03/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 3 19:19:58 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2007 14:19:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 031924 SWODY1 SPC AC 031922 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CST SAT FEB 03 2007 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A 150 KT MID-LEVEL JET EXITING THE EAST COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH FL. POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN CNTRL FL HOWEVER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RUC FORECAST PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE VERY WEAK ATTM IN CNTRL FL AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 14 19:31:26 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2007 14:31:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 141936 SWODY1 SPC AC 141934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST WED FEB 14 2007 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES... SOUTHERN...LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE HIGHEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION. THIS INCLUDES THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COLORADO...WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE BY 21-23Z...ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ...FLORIDA KEYS... LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT STILL NORTH OF THE KEYS...WHERE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENT REGIME ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO CAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 02/14/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 00:35:34 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2007 19:35:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] Notice/update regarding email weather bulletins Message-ID: <20070220003559.40E423A004E@mail.goshen.edu> As many of you have noticed there have not been a lot of weather bulletins coming to you by email in the last month or so. The cold weather has exposed the slow failure of the LNB (low-noise block down-converter) on my Ku-band EMWIN satellite downlink. When LNBs get old, their center-frequencies become very temperature dependent. In other words, the colder outside it gets, the futher off-frequency it drifts, until the signal drops to below the noise threshhold. At that point the ingest engines locks up and no more message get parsed. So as long as the temperature stays above the mid-twenties, the data will keep flowing. A new LNB has been ordered, and hopefully the four-foot snow drift around the dish will melt about the same time the new LNB shows up. That's the update...it appears to be running smoothly right now with the temperatures mild, so we'll see what happens in the next week. If you are on more that one list, you have received one message for each list that you are on. Apologies for any duplicates. ---------------------------------------------------------- Calvin F. Swartzendruber calvinfs at goshen.edu From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 00:32:25 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2007 19:32:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 200037 SWODY1 SPC AC 200034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE WELL SAMPLED BY 20/00Z TUS SOUNDING WHICH EXHIBITED A RATHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 700 MB AND SBCAPES OF 150-170 J/KG. SHORT TERM RUC/NAM DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH 20/03-04Z. THEREAFTER...ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...WITH ASSOCIATED THUNDER THREAT DIMINISHING. ..MEAD.. 02/20/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 02:01:14 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2007 21:01:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 200205 SWODY1 SPC AC 200203 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE WELL SAMPLED BY 20/00Z TUS SOUNDING WHICH EXHIBITED A RATHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 700 MB AND SBCAPES OF 150-170 J/KG. SHORT TERM RUC/NAM DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH 20/03-04Z. THEREAFTER...ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...WITH ASSOCIATED THUNDER THREAT DIMINISHING. ..MEAD.. 02/20/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 05:40:56 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2007 00:40:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 200545 SWODY1 SPC AC 200543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH /CURRENTLY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY/ IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL CONCURRENTLY PROPAGATE EWD THROUGH THE S-CNTRL AND SERN STATES IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM NERN OK TO JUST W OF MEM BY 21/00Z...PRIOR TO WEAKENING WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD...AND WILL EXTEND FROM ALONG THE OH RIVER SWWD TO SURFACE LOW NEAR MEM TO THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT /SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...MID SOUTH... 20/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRN GULF COAST AND CURRENT GOES SOUNDER PW LOOP INDICATE A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS/ RETURNING NNEWD THROUGH E TX AND WRN LA. STRENGTHENING SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS AIR MASS INTO REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...LARGELY ZONAL AIR STREAM IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN THE EWD ADVECTION OF SRN HIGH PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING SHALLOW...MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIKELY LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE AHEAD OF FRONT OVER NRN/CNTRL AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS. THE ABOVE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO STRONGER SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. INDEED...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WRN TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-700 J PER KG/...RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THIS INITIATION ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...NAMELY OVER WRN TN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGER CLUSTERS WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING ESEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. ..MEAD.. 02/20/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 21 00:41:21 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2007 19:41:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 210046 SWODY1 SPC AC 210043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH... ...MID SOUTH... 00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF UNO WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED SWWD FROM THIS LOW INTO W-CNTRL AR. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF OF THIS SURFACE LOW /POF TO CGI/ WITHIN ZONE OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND ON THE NERN FRINGE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AXIS FROM N-CNTRL AR INTO SERN OK. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. INFLOW AIR MASS FOR THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL SAMPLED BY THE 00Z LIT SOUNDING WITH SBCAPES OF 600-700 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CURRENT BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER INDICATES LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WITH 60-65 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS AS EVIDENCED BY PERSISTENT LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL APPROACHING CGI AS OF 0020Z. HOWEVER...MEM VWP SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH SWD EXTENT WITH 300-350 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. BASED ON RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 00Z LIT SOUNDING AND ANTICIPATED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES...EXPECT THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. A TORNADO OR TWO STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN MOVE/DEVELOP MORE SEWD INTO STRONGER SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO WRN TN. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER 21/06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND CAP BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG. ..MEAD.. 02/21/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 21 05:34:38 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2007 00:34:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 210539 SWODY1 SPC AC 210537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD AS SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND THE GREAT LAKES INTENSIFY IN POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM IMPULSE /NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/ WILL SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SRN STREAM WAVE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM WRN/MIDDLE TN TO CNTRL NC BY EARLY EVENING WHILE TRAILING COOL FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ...CAROLINAS INTO NRN GA... INCREASING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S AS FAR NE AS THE MIDLANDS AND COASTAL SC INTO SERN NC. HOWEVER... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL MORNING ACTIVITY FROM VICINITY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN OR S-CNTRL NC SWWD INTO NRN GA WHERE POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. SOME STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR SUGGEST A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. ..MEAD.. 02/21/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 3 15:53:56 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2007 10:53:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 031558 SWODY1 SPC AC 031556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0956 AM CST SAT FEB 03 2007 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...FL... BROAD COLD TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH COLD AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY IS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THIS REGION... PARALLEL AND NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT NO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAK CAPE. ...GREAT LAKES... VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO EXIST ALONG THE WINDWARD COASTS OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO COLD/DRY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS. ..HART.. 02/03/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 3 19:19:58 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Sat, 03 Feb 2007 14:19:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 031924 SWODY1 SPC AC 031922 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CST SAT FEB 03 2007 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A 150 KT MID-LEVEL JET EXITING THE EAST COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH FL. POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN CNTRL FL HOWEVER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RUC FORECAST PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE VERY WEAK ATTM IN CNTRL FL AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 02/03/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 14 19:31:26 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2007 14:31:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 141936 SWODY1 SPC AC 141934 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CST WED FEB 14 2007 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES... SOUTHERN...LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...AND PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE HIGHEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION. THIS INCLUDES THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COLORADO...WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE BY 21-23Z...ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ...FLORIDA KEYS... LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT STILL NORTH OF THE KEYS...WHERE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENT REGIME ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO CAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 02/14/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 00:35:34 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2007 19:35:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] Notice/update regarding email weather bulletins Message-ID: <20070220003559.40E423A004E@mail.goshen.edu> As many of you have noticed there have not been a lot of weather bulletins coming to you by email in the last month or so. The cold weather has exposed the slow failure of the LNB (low-noise block down-converter) on my Ku-band EMWIN satellite downlink. When LNBs get old, their center-frequencies become very temperature dependent. In other words, the colder outside it gets, the futher off-frequency it drifts, until the signal drops to below the noise threshhold. At that point the ingest engines locks up and no more message get parsed. So as long as the temperature stays above the mid-twenties, the data will keep flowing. A new LNB has been ordered, and hopefully the four-foot snow drift around the dish will melt about the same time the new LNB shows up. That's the update...it appears to be running smoothly right now with the temperatures mild, so we'll see what happens in the next week. If you are on more that one list, you have received one message for each list that you are on. Apologies for any duplicates. ---------------------------------------------------------- Calvin F. Swartzendruber calvinfs at goshen.edu From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 00:32:25 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2007 19:32:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 200037 SWODY1 SPC AC 200034 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE WELL SAMPLED BY 20/00Z TUS SOUNDING WHICH EXHIBITED A RATHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 700 MB AND SBCAPES OF 150-170 J/KG. SHORT TERM RUC/NAM DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH 20/03-04Z. THEREAFTER...ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...WITH ASSOCIATED THUNDER THREAT DIMINISHING. ..MEAD.. 02/20/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 02:01:14 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2007 21:01:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 200205 SWODY1 SPC AC 200203 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...AZ/NM... SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ IN ADVANCE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE WELL SAMPLED BY 20/00Z TUS SOUNDING WHICH EXHIBITED A RATHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 700 MB AND SBCAPES OF 150-170 J/KG. SHORT TERM RUC/NAM DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TONIGHT...LIKELY SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH 20/03-04Z. THEREAFTER...ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN DECREASING LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...WITH ASSOCIATED THUNDER THREAT DIMINISHING. ..MEAD.. 02/20/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 20 05:40:56 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2007 00:40:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 200545 SWODY1 SPC AC 200543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN BRANCH...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH /CURRENTLY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY/ IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL CONCURRENTLY PROPAGATE EWD THROUGH THE S-CNTRL AND SERN STATES IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD FROM NERN OK TO JUST W OF MEM BY 21/00Z...PRIOR TO WEAKENING WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD...AND WILL EXTEND FROM ALONG THE OH RIVER SWWD TO SURFACE LOW NEAR MEM TO THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. THIS SURFACE LOW AND FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT /SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...MID SOUTH... 20/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRN GULF COAST AND CURRENT GOES SOUNDER PW LOOP INDICATE A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS/ RETURNING NNEWD THROUGH E TX AND WRN LA. STRENGTHENING SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF THIS AIR MASS INTO REGION AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...LARGELY ZONAL AIR STREAM IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN THE EWD ADVECTION OF SRN HIGH PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING SHALLOW...MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIKELY LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE AHEAD OF FRONT OVER NRN/CNTRL AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS. THE ABOVE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO STRONGER SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT. INDEED...LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING INVOF SURFACE LOW OVER NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL/WRN TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-700 J PER KG/...RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THIS INITIATION ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...NAMELY OVER WRN TN...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGER CLUSTERS WITH A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING ESEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. ..MEAD.. 02/20/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 21 00:41:21 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2007 19:41:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 210046 SWODY1 SPC AC 210043 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0643 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH... ...MID SOUTH... 00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW JUST SE OF UNO WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED SWWD FROM THIS LOW INTO W-CNTRL AR. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INVOF OF THIS SURFACE LOW /POF TO CGI/ WITHIN ZONE OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AND ON THE NERN FRINGE OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AXIS FROM N-CNTRL AR INTO SERN OK. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION. INFLOW AIR MASS FOR THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL SAMPLED BY THE 00Z LIT SOUNDING WITH SBCAPES OF 600-700 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CURRENT BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER INDICATES LARGELY UNDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WITH 60-65 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS AS EVIDENCED BY PERSISTENT LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL APPROACHING CGI AS OF 0020Z. HOWEVER...MEM VWP SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH SWD EXTENT WITH 300-350 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. BASED ON RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 00Z LIT SOUNDING AND ANTICIPATED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES...EXPECT THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. A TORNADO OR TWO STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN MOVE/DEVELOP MORE SEWD INTO STRONGER SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO WRN TN. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GRADUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER 21/06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND CAP BECOMES INCREASINGLY STRONG. ..MEAD.. 02/21/2007  From swody1 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 21 05:34:38 2007 From: swody1 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook Day 1) Date: Wed, 21 Feb 2007 00:34:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: ACUS01 KWNS 210539 SWODY1 SPC AC 210537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD AS SYSTEMS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND THE GREAT LAKES INTENSIFY IN POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM IMPULSE /NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/ WILL SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SRN STREAM WAVE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM WRN/MIDDLE TN TO CNTRL NC BY EARLY EVENING WHILE TRAILING COOL FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ...CAROLINAS INTO NRN GA... INCREASING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S AS FAR NE AS THE MIDLANDS AND COASTAL SC INTO SERN NC. HOWEVER... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL MORNING ACTIVITY FROM VICINITY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN OR S-CNTRL NC SWWD INTO NRN GA WHERE POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. SOME STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR SUGGEST A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN OR MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. ..MEAD.. 02/21/2007