[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280057
SWODY1
SPC AC 280055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AR TO N-CENTRAL KY...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF CONUS FROM
ERN PLAINS TO ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RIDGE ACROSS GREAT BASIN REGION.
 MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF QUE/ONT BORDER...TO BE REPLACED BY
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS IA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION THAT CROSSED SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT NOW IS BARELY EVIDENT
ACROSS AR...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE IA
TROUGH.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 00Z FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...OZARKS OF SRN MO/NRN AR...S-CENTRAL OK AND
NW TX. PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT WAS EVIDENT FROM
W-CENTRAL TX ACROSS SERN OK AND CENTRAL AR...NORTHEASTWARD INTO
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER AR.  PREFRONTAL TROUGH THEN WAS COLLOCATED
WITH BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS NEAR A LINE FROM ARG...PAH...OWB...30 NNW
CVG...20 NNW CLE.  BOTH TROUGH AND FRONT ARE FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
 OH...KY...MUCH OF WRN-MID TN..ARKLATEX REGION AND W-CENTRAL TX
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.

...AR TO OH VALLEY...
BEST-ORGANIZED POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND AND HAIL WILL BE IN AND NEAR
WW 801 FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY ARE MAXIMIZED REGIONALLY
ATTM.  REF WW 801 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
INFO.  AFTER SUNSET...SBCINH IS FCST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY AS MRGLLY
MOIST SFC AIR MASS DIABATICALLY COOLS...REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR SVR
GUSTS TO REACH SFC.  THIS ALSO WILL DIMINISH SBCAPE TO NEAR
ZERO...WITH ANY NOCTURNAL TSTMS SUPPORTED BY NARROW PLUME OF
ELEVATED WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  THEREFORE...SVR
PROBABILITIES WILL BECOME SMALLER WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT AS
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EWD.

..EDWARDS.. 09/28/2006