[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230109
SWODY1
SPC AC 230107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...TN AND OH VALLEYS
AND GREAT LAKES...

...ERN OK THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN OH VALLEY...

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD THROUGH THE OK
AND TX PANHANDLES. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD TONIGHT. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL TX NEWD THROUGH ERN OK INTO ERN KS WHERE IT
INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NWWD INTO
CNTRL OK TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO BACKING AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM ERN OK...NRN AR INTO
SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY FROM
ERN OK...NRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER OK ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL JET ADVANCING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFT AUGMENTED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CORRIDOR FROM ERN OK
THROUGH NRN AR...INTO WRN KY AND NWRN TN. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. MOREOVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN IN
A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR UNINTERRUPTED MOIST UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXIST AS FAR EAST AS WRN
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT DIMINISHES
WITH ERN EXTENT INTO THIS REGION DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE RETREATING DRYLINE FROM W
CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK AND SERN KS LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO LINES. HOWEVER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORMS STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE
INCLUDING SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHOES.

..DIAL.. 09/23/2006