[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 212008
SWODY1
SPC AC 212006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN OK/NERN TX/SWRN
AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF KS AND
OK AND NERN TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY...

...ERN KS/ERN OK/NERN TX EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE LOW ANALYZED OVER WRN KS ATTM. 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NWRN KS INVOF THE
UPPER LOW...ALSO CENTERED OVER WRN KS. MEANWHILE WEAKLY-CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN NARROW WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF DRYLINE -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM S CENTRAL KS SSWWD INTO THE
TX BIG BEND REGION...AND THE WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM S
CENTRAL KS SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO E TX.

AS DRYLINE PROGRESSES EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND WARM FRONT SHIFTS
EWD/NEWD ACROSS SERN KS AND ERN PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE WITHIN DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER -- PRIMARILY
FROM NERN TX NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK INTO SERN KS.  

BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED/CELLULAR.  GIVEN STRONG SELY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WHICH INCREASES/VEERS RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY AT 50 TO 70
KT AT 3 KM ACCORDING TO AREA VWPS/PROFILERS...DEVELOPING STORMS
SHOULD VERY RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION.  WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS
FAR N AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N CENTRAL TX/S CENTRAL OK...LOW
LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT...SPREADING EWD ACROSS NERN TX AND SERN OK THIS
EVENING.  THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS MOIST/UNSTABLE NWD
INTO ERN KS...FAVORABLE SHEAR IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS THIS REGION. 

OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR...WITH SOME INCREASE IN
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ONGOING HAIL/TORNADO THREAT.
 WIND THREAT SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR E AS THE WRN HALF OF AR AND SWRN
MO...WITH HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD THE MS RIVER.

..GOSS.. 09/21/2006