[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101957
SWODY1
SPC AC 101955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX...ERN
TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS W-CENTRAL/NWRN CONUS...AS
DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NEB...WRN IA...CENTRAL KS
AND NWRN OK EJECTS SLOWLY EWD. ASSOCIATED/PRIMARY SFC LOW IS
ANALYZED INVOF CENTRAL PORTION KS/NEB BORDER...AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OR REDEVELOP EWD TOWARD NRN MO THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.  TWO
SFC COLD FRONTS ARE ANALYZED ATTM -- INITIAL FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
FROM LOW OVER EXTREME ERN OK PANHANDLE...THEN SSWWD ACROSS ERN TX
PANHANDLE...THEN SWWD TO SERN NM.  SECOND/STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
SURGE IS EVIDENT FROM LOW WSWWD ACROSS NWRN KS AND E-CENTRAL
CO...AND SHOULD CATCH UP TO INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS OK AND W TX
NEAR END OF PERIOD OR EARLY DAY-2.

...SRN PLAINS...
SHORT TERM SVR GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND N OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE INSOLATION AND SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S
HAVE BOOSTED MLCAPES TO AOA 2000 J/KG. PERSISTENT DEEP
CU...TOWERING CU AND YOUNG CB HAVE BEEN SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY OVER
MOTLEY/COTTLE COUNTIES TX INVOF FRONT/TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. 
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA MAY SPREAD/MOVE SSEWD TOWARD
BGS-ABI-MWL CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PER SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955.  FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OVER ERN PANHANDLE AND MOVE SSEWD OR SEWD INTO DESTABILIZED OUTFLOW
AIR ACROSS SERN PANHANDLE...AND PERHAPS EXTREME WRN OK.

DESPITE WEAK ABSOLUTE SPEEDS IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...VERTICAL SHEAR
MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MRGL SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION...AS WELL
AS WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS.  RELATIVELY
BACKED/ELY SFC FLOW COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE BOTH LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WITH BOTH FDR VWP DATA AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING
0-1 KM SRH 75-150 J/KG...AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SVR THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER APPROXIMATELY 3-4Z...WHEN LOSS OF SFC HEATING
AND INCREASING PREVALENCE OF OUTFLOW AIR SHOULD DIMINISH AVAILABLE
BUOYANCY.

...E-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...
BAND OF MAXIMIZED LARGE SCALE ASCENT -- ASSOCIATED WITH MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS IN SWATH FROM SERN KS NNEWD ALONG I-35 IN NWRN
MO.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH MO IN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS.  SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE MIXED INTO 50S/LOW 60S F OVER MUCH OF MO AND WRN IL AMIDST
STRONG SFC HEATING...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
PROFILES FOR ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS FROM MOST VIGOROUS CELLS. 
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION -- SFC AND ALOFT -- IS
POSSIBLE BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD/PRECIP BAND ACROSS PORTIONS
WRN/SRN KS...SWWD OVER NWRN OK.  DEEP-LAYER WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES
ARE FCST TO REMAIN WEAK...THOUGH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE
ENLARGED E-SE OF SFC LOW AND INVOF WARM FRONT...ACROSS NERN KS AND
NRN MO.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AND GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...PRIMARILY BEFORE DARK.

..EDWARDS.. 09/10/2006