[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101242
SWODY1
SPC AC 101240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY.  AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SAGGING ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN KS WITH TAIL END SHIFTING
SWD BEFORE STALLING INTO W-CENTRAL TX/ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW PRIMARY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO NWRN OK LATER
TODAY. 12Z SOUNDING FROM AMA INDICATED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RATHER STEEP WITH 7.1 C/KM LR FROM H7 TO H5.  AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
80F JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  MID/UPPER LEVEL WLY WINDS
ALONG PERIPHERY OF SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUSTAIN
SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINES WITH
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SLY H85 FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EWD TOWARDS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND LIMIT OVERALL
HEATING/INSTABILITY.  MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 09/10/2006