[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 091957
SWODY1
SPC AC 091955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AHEAD OF A FRONT FROM WRN NEW
ENGLAND SWWD INTO OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN AZ...

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA AND AT MID
AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ME SWWD THROUGH WRN NY AND INTO THE
EXTREME NRN PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY. SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT... INCLUDING A BAND FROM
NWRN PA INTO NERN OH THAT WAS ENHANCED BY THE LAKE BREEZE. MLCAPES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MOSTLY 25-30 KT DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS. RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT...3/4 TO 1
INCH SIZE...UNTIL EARLY EVENING. EVEN THROUGH THE WINDS FROM THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 300 MB ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH
RANGE...A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY N-S ORIENTED THUNDERSTORM LINES.

...TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KS...
A COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK UPPER LOW 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SERN WY. A HIGH LEVEL
SPEED MAX AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WAS ALSO EVIDENT PUNCHING EWD FROM CO
INTO WRN KS AND IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THE UPPER LOW TO NEAR AN MCV
LOCATED NEAR IML. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NERN CO SEWD INTO E CENTRAL KS. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES
HAD WARMED INTO THE 70S AND 80S AND WAS RESULTING IN MLCAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OVER KS. THE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...AZ/SRN UT...
ONE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED EAST OF THE PHX EARLIER TODAY
...BUT MORE STORMS HAD DEVELOPED WEST OF PHX ON AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WERE INGESTING AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY
LOCATED ACROSS THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION
WERE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO NEAR 90...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD PHX. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED FROM
NRN AZ INTO SRN UT AND ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..IMY.. 09/09/2006