[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 091638
SWODY1
SPC AC 091636

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VALLEY/NY/NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL/SRN QUEBEC.  MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS YIELD
ONLY MODEST WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG/
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F. 
ALSO...FORECAST WIND PROFILES AND LOCAL VWP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM IS UNLIKELY TO EXCEED 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST
AT BEST.  DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
INVOF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ONLY
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT.

...TX PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A COMPLEX MID LEVEL WAVE WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA IS
MOVING SLOWLY EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD NW
OK/KS/NEB...WHILE AN MCV IS APPARENT OVER S CENTRAL NEB.  WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY FROM CENTRAL/NE KS INTO NEB IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE MCV.  THOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN
KS...SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS FROM THE S COULD RESULT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS.  FARTHER
SW...ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
REMNANT LEE TROUGH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  HERE...DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  

...AZ AREA TODAY...
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING OVER NW AZ.  THE
CONVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL WAVE BOTH APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS OF
MID MORNING.  HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AZ AND LOCAL STORM OUTFLOWS MAY ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE RIM THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/09/2006