[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090556
SWODY1
SPC AC 090554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NEW ENGLAND/OH VALLEY...

PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER SERN CANADA WILL ALLOW SWLY FLOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NERN U.S. LATER TODAY.  IN THE WAKE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH...SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EWD AND A FORCE A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT FRONT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND BY 18Z...TRAILING SWWD
INTO NRN OH/IND.  LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST WARM SECTOR LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN THOUGH 3KM...IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM...AS AIRMASS WARMS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND WIND SHIFT AS IT ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG.  IT
APPEARS 25-30KT ESEWD STORM MOTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MOST
UPDRAFTS AS THEY STRUGGLE TO STAY AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL ZONE. 
GUSTY WINDS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL.  IT APPEARS INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL PROVE A BIT TOO MEAGER TO
WARRANT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THIS REGION.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

MULTIPLE VORT MAXIMA ARE NOTED WITHIN BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING.  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED BENEATH THIS TROUGH THE LAST FEW
DAYS...EXTENDING A GOOD DISTANCE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS REGION. THIS HAS EFFECTIVELY NEUTRALIZED LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE.  EVEN SO...WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS
SHOULD OCCUR OVER NERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PSEUDO DRYLINE
SERVING TO FOCUS POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ADDITIONALLY...A
WEAK LLJ SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AND THIS SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL
ZONE FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS.  A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
MAY EXHIBIT WEAK SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AS BROAD VEERING PROFILES
WILL FAVOR STORM ROTATION.  ISOLATED HAIL OR PERHAPS A MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUST COULD OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION.

..DARROW/GUYER.. 09/09/2006