[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080547
SWODY1
SPC AC 080545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER MI TO NERN IA...

...GREAT LAKES TO NERN IA...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN BASE OF
DEEPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA.  AT THE
SFC...DOMINANT ANTICYCLONE OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL BUILD SWD FORCING
A COLD FRONT INTO NRN LOWER MI/CNTRL WI AROUND PEAK
HEATING...TRAILING SWWD INTO IA.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN HEAT RAPIDLY DUE TO DEEP WSWLY FLOW
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO WI. IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WILL EASILY BE REACHED WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY 19-20Z ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR.  IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP ASCENT ALONG SHALLOW CONVERGENT
WIND SHIFT...UPDRAFTS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY...BUT STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. EVEN SO...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL QUICKLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLE BEFORE DECAYING AND STABILIZING THE
FRONTAL ZONE.  GREATEST THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS ACROSS LOWER
MI INTO WI...WHILE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS IA
INTO NERN NEB. LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO
ANY SEVERE THREAT ALTHOUGH WEAK STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NRN IL/SRN LOWER MI.

...SWRN U.S...

HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS
OF SRN CA/AZ THIS MORNING WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 INCHES
MANY AREAS.  WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE/SPREAD CONVECTIVE
THREAT INTO ERN AZ/NM. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH LATER TODAY AND A FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 09/08/2006