[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051935
SWODY1
SPC AC 051933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY AREA...

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CNTRL IL CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD. COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR UPPER LOW CENTER WITH -16C AT 500 MB AND
POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MODERATELY STEEP LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. ZONES OF ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. 

...SERN STATES...

SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE
RESULTED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
FROM PORTIONS OF GA NEWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MLCAPE TO AOB 1500 J/KG. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE
WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. 

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SERN CO
INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SEVERE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. SEE SWOMCD 1933 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

..DIAL.. 09/05/2006