[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 051628
SWODY1
SPC AC 051626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE SEP 05 2006

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER IL WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EWD AS AN OPEN
WAVE...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OVER ONTARIO.  WEAK SURFACE WAVES ALONG A FRONT
FROM THE PIEDMONT TO THE TIDEWATER AREA SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AS A
SINGLE LOW AND MOVE NEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...IN
ADVANCE OF THE OH VALLEY MID LEVEL TROUGH.  SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS AND DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. THE
ERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER /30 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERLAP THE
WRN FRINGE OF THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT.  GIVEN
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ IN THE
WARM SECTOR...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG/ISOLATED
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
WILL PERSIST TODAY BENEATH NLY/NWLY MID-UPPER FLOW...AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SPEED MAX ROTATING SSEWD FROM ERN CO TOWARD EXTREME
NE NM AND THE NW TX PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM 68-72 F
W OF THE THICKER STRATUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS /30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR IN LOWEST 6 KM/.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM AND THE NW TX PANHANDLE BY
MID AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.  

...IL/INDIANA TODAY...
THE COLD CORE MID LEVEL LOW OVER IL WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVE EWD OVER INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. 
CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD
POOL...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS ALLOW SOME SURFACE HEATING.  HOWEVER...RATHER MODEST MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 C/KM/ AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 09/05/2006