[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040037
SWODY1
SPC AC 040036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT SUN SEP 03 2006

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...IA...

AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS EVENING FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR N OF DSM SWWD TO THE LNK/BIE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW
OVER NWRN IA.  THESE STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR
LIKELY AS A RESULT OF WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH THIS
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
STABILIZES.

...SWRN AZ/SRN CA...

WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER IS NOT AS MOIST AS 24 HOURS PRIOR...DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING TO THE
NWRN OF T.S. JOHN CIRRUS CANOPY HAVE RESULTED IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.  TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AS WELL AS DENSITY CURRENT
PROPAGATING WWD THROUGH PIMA COUNTY MAY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING WHILE
ENCOUNTERING MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY. 

WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR...THOUGH POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE CELLS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

..MEAD.. 09/04/2006