[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030040
SWODY1
SPC AC 030038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SAT SEP 02 2006

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ/SRN CA...

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING FROM ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM SWD THROUGH THE LOWER
DESERTS OF SRN AZ AND ACROSS THE CO RIVER INTO SRN CA. THESE STORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE OFF THE GULF OF CA
WHERE OBSERVED DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  WHEN COUPLED
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO 100-105 F...AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPES STILL AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
OVER SWRN AZ INTO FAR SERN CA.

REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK
BELOW 9 KM AGL WITH STORM MOTIONS LARGELY GOVERNED BY PROPAGATION
ALONG MERGING/ORGANIZING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS THROUGH 04-05Z.

..MEAD.. 09/03/2006