[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020049
SWODY1
SPC AC 020047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS ERN CO IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STRONG FRONTAL SURGE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS
ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED INTO A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SEWD AT ROUGHLY 15-20 KT TOWARD SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE.  00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH DDC AND AMA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING
MCS-TYPE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG INTO THIS ACTIVITY...UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FAVOR LONG-LIVED MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL.  HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD SEWD.

..DARROW.. 09/02/2006