[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011959
SWODY1
SPC AC 011957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN CO AND
WRN KS...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS...
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD ACROSS ERN MT AND
ERN WY WITH THE SRN EXTENT LOCATED ACROSS NRN CO. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SWD ACROSS NE CO AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS SHOWN ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS WITH OTHER STORMS INITIATING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. 
SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 ARE NEAR 60 F AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS ECNTRL AND SERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MCS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE GRANADA CO 
PROFILER SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WHICH IS MOSTLY DUE TO
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 3 KM AND MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
SHEAR PROFILE APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN CO AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ALTHOUGH STRONG MULTICELL STORMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS ERN CO AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE APPEARS LESS LIKELY...STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT FORM ALONG OR NEAR THE
COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO FAR WRN KS.

...ERN VA/SRN MD...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SE
VA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINBANDS EXIST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE AREA AROUND CHESAPEAKE BAY. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS...TORNADOES
APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ANY MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE DEPRESSION
MOVES FURTHER INLAND.

..BROYLES.. 09/01/2006