[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011613
SWODY1
SPC AC 011612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT/WY DIGGING
ESEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE AXIS FROM OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA.  THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND CLOSE OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM MN SWWD INTO NWRN CO WILL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS ERN
CO/WRN KS REGION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL/NERN CO WHICH
WILL PERMIT STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON.  THESE FACTORS SUPPORT 12Z RUC/NAM AND
09Z SREF NAMKF CONTROL RUN FORECASTS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
THE NORTH CENTRAL/NERN CO BORDER AREA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AS
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE ASCENT OF
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT STRONG
VEERING/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT...WHICH WILL COMPENSATE FOR
RELATIVELY MODEST WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS IN THE MID LEVELS /20-25 KT
AT 500 MB/.  RESULTANT 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONSOLIDATE INTO
ONE OR TWO MCS/S BY LATE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SEWD INTO
PARTS OF WRN KS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

...SERN VA...
REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE NWD INTO SERN VA...WITH 
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION.  THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LACK OF CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER LAND DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.
THE EXTENSIVE REGION OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER SUGGEST THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED ZONES OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR. THUS...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
MORNING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CIRCULATION LIFTS NWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.  THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUST MAY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN VA BUT
OVERALL THREAT NO LONGER WARRANTS A SLIGHT RISK.

..WEISS/GUYER.. 09/01/2006