[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011232
SWODY1
SPC AC 011230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN EXTREME NERN NC AND SERN
VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
T.S. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM NC
INTO VA AND WEAKEN...THOUGH SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFTING AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT ESEWD
INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

...NERN NC/EXTREME SERN VA...
THE CENTER OF THE ERNESTO APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR RWI WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER.
WHILE MID 70 DEWPOINTS ARE PRESENT EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
...INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK DUE TO THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WITH THE 1 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM 30-50 KT. THE MAIN
BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO THE
EXTREME SERN VA COAST. THE STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...REFERENCE WW 762. AS ERNESTO WEAKENS AND MOVES NWD INTO VA
AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS NERN CO AS EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAD
MOVED EWD INTO KS...WITH ONLY A FEW REMAINING STORMS. BOUNDARY LAYER
IS RELATIVELY MOIST AND STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SWD.
THOUGH ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE
SURFACE TO 600 MB...STRONGLY VEERING WINDS IN THE 3 KM AND 30-50 KT
WINDS FROM 600-250MB SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. 
ALTHOUGH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...THE FRONTAL FORCING AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MERGING STORM
OUTFLOWS. THIS MAY AID IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN MCS IN ERN CO BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SPREAD SEWD... ALONG WITH THE
FRONT AND INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS...ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.

..IMY.. 09/01/2006