[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010559
SWODY1
SPC AC 010558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI SEP 01 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERNESTO ACROSS ERN NC AND
SERN VA...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

CONVECTION WILL READILY DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL SURGE.  LATE EVENING MODEL
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST SFC PRESSURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FORCING COLD FRONT INTO
NERN CO BY 18Z.  LATEST THINKING IS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY...GIVEN STRENGTHENING NELY UPSLOPE REGIME...FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 20Z FROM THE WY/CO BORDER INTO SWRN NEB.
 THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD WITHIN MODERATELY-STRONG SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KT. ALTHOUGH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS FORCING MAY
FACILITATE STORM MERGERS AND POSSIBLE MCS EVOLUTION BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN CO.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS
WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES LATER IN THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.


...ERN NC/SERN VA...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NC INTO SRN VA AND
WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE
OVER VA THIS MORNING WHERE SFC DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP WITH
SUSTAINED NELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM DOMINANT SFC RIDGE OVER
SERN CANADA.  TROPICAL WEDGE OVER ERN NC INTO SERN VA SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR WILL SPREAD ATOP
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

..DARROW/BOTHWELL.. 09/01/2006