[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271943
SWODY1
SPC AC 271941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IND TO AR...

FRONTAL FORCING APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WCNTRL IND...INITIALLY OVER MONTGOMERY AND PARK COUNTIES. 
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS NOT TERRIBLY UNSTABLE...ROUGHLY 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE...BUT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IS CERTAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
THIS PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.  LATEST THINKING IS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITHIN BROADER ZONE OF DEEPENING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL/NERN IND.  HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER ECHOES...WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE NOTED.

A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT CONVECTIVE MODE IS EVOLVING ACROSS AR INTO SERN
MO THIS AFTERNOON.  WV IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD CONTINUITY WITH WEAK
UPPER IMPULSE THAT HAS SHEARED EWD ACROSS NM/OK INTO WCNTRL AR. 
THIS FEATURE HAS A HISTORY OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
APPARENTLY WEAKENED INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR RENEWED ROBUST
NEAR-SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-40 FROM CRAWFORD TO NEWTON
COUNTIES IN AR...JUST NE OF FSM.  AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ENEWD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN AR INTO SERN MO...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN KY/TN.  LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.  LATER THIS EVENING...COLD FRONT
SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THIS ACTIVITY FORCING SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT
DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KY/MIDDLE TN.  THIS LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS.

..DARROW.. 09/27/2006