[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN 2/3 OF MO...ERN
OK/THE NRN 2/3 OF AR...WRN TN...WRN KY...AND THE SRN 2/3 OF IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX EWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY...AND NWD TO THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...NERN TX/ERN OK ACROSS THE MID MS/TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE MS/LOWER
OH VALLEY REGIONS...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ NOW AS FAR N AS CENTRAL IL.  SUPERCELL STORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO INTO NRN AR...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS
OF NERN MS/NRN AL WITHIN VERY MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. 
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING W OF ONGOING
STORMS...FROM ERN OK/NWRN AR INTO CENTRAL MO/W CENTRAL IL...ALONG
WRN FRINGES OF MDT RISK AREA.

SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES
OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA...AS FRONT REMAINS W OF
THIS REGION AND LOW-LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.  ALONG
WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING
OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG -- AND
POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK -- TORNADOES.  

WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  ONGOING CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS -- AND ACCOMPANYING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL -- WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD/NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL/AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

..GOSS.. 09/22/2006