[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 200050
SWODY1
SPC AC 200048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
ENOUGH INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED IN RELATIVELY MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BENEATH EASTERN FRINGE OF
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WASHINGTON/ OREGON
INTO SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.  SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
CELLS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY QUICKLY WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET.

WITH PRIMARY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK STILL DIGGING NEAR COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHWEST OREGON...STRONGER FORCING IS FOCUSED IN THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.  THIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
TONIGHT...AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO MAINTAIN
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER DARK.  CAPE IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY STILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST NEVADA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO.  PROFILES WITH LARGE
LOW-LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED
WITH A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET MAY MAINTAIN RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE PROGRESSING OUT OF THE BASE OF
A BROADER SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.  ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING 
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES TO SUPPORT A LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...WITH ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE
CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD.  HOWEVER...THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES...AND LIKELY IS DECREASING FURTHER WITH A GRADUAL LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...FLORIDA...
BULK OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...NOW
APPEARS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BUT...PRE-FRONTAL FORCING
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..KERR.. 09/20/2006