[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100242
SWODY1
SPC AC 100240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY TO NORTHEAST STATES...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA...WHILE THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE NERN STATES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT INTO THE NRN PART OF THE
OH VALLEY /WRN PA TO CENTRAL IL/ SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY. 
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...REDUCING AVAILABLE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL/NRN IL INTO CENTRAL IND WHERE
MERGERS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INDUCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-35 KT
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
 THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL NEB AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN KS...WHILE A SERIES OF
WEAKER IMPULSES EXTENDED FROM WRN WY TO ERN CO.  ASCENT AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE NNEWD INTO WRN KS AND UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO. 
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS.  LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL TO THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS...WITH WARM ADVECTION INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS NRN KS/SERN NEB ALONG NOSE OF LLJ TO THE EAST OF
NEB/KS SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT.

...AZ...
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WERE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND ERN NV/UT.  ASCENT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHILE WEAKER
ASCENT SWD INTO AZ SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.  DECREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
AZ WILL ALSO RESULT IN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
 THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS YET THIS
EVENING HAVING A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL.

..PETERS.. 09/10/2006