[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090039
SWODY1
SPC AC 090036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN NEB TO LOWER MI...

LOSS OF SFC HEATING WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM NERN NEB/NRN IA INTO CNTRL LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT APPEARS
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD RESULT IN FEEBLE UPDRAFTS BY 03Z.  IN THE SHORT
TERM...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SUSTAIN A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.


...SERN CA/AZ...

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
REGIONS OF AZ THIS EVENING.  WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH MUCH
DRIER MID LEVELS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
WNWLY FLOW REGIME.  WEAK LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD NOT
ENHANCE ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS.  A FEW STORMS COULD GENERATE SOME WIND OR SMALL HAIL
BUT OVERALL THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

..DARROW.. 09/09/2006