[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 082002
SWODY1
SPC AC 081959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...GREAT LAKES AREA...

A COLD FRONT FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN WI AND INTO SRN MN
WILL CONTINUE SWD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING SEWD
THROUGH SRN ONTARIO. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S. INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY PRE-FRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION AND MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. WLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 25 TO 30 KT BETWEEN 850-500 MB AND
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELLS S OF THE FRONT.
VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR AND N OF FRONT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...BUT ACTIVITY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED. SOME STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND SMALL
CLUSTERS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...SWRN U.S....

THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING OVER AZ INTO WRN NM AS A RESULT OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE NUMEROUS OVER NM WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BY ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE MORE LIMITED IN
THIS REGION. FARTHER W ACROSS AZ...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DRYER MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AS A RESULT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED. STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS...BUT COVERAGE OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 09/08/2006