[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010055
SWODY1
SPC AC 010053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WITH ERNESTO...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

LINEAR MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER ERN CO...EXTENDING FROM MORGAN COUNTY TO
LINCOLN COUNTY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EWD AT ROUGHLY 25
KT...WITH SRN EXTENT MORE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.  IT APPEARS A
WEAK MVC IS EVOLVING OVER NERN CO WHERE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CONTINUES TO EXPAND...ALONG WITH COLD POOL.  DOWNSTREAM...00Z
SOUNDING FROM DDC DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH 700MB...WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF MAIN MCS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN KS.  ONE STORM OVER WICHITA COUNTY
IS ORGANIZING ALONG A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT
STRETCHES FROM NWRN OK INTO ECNTRL CO. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITHIN THIS FAVORED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...WELL AHEAD OF MCS.  WITH TIME...SEWD MOVEMENT OF
MCS WILL MERGE WITH THIS DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION BEFORE PROPAGATING
INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN OK LATE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WELL INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.

...ERNESTO...

ERNESTO...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ILM...CONTINUES ITS NWD MOVEMENT TO
TOWARD THE SRN NC COAST.  WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD WELL
INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF NC WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS LOCATED INVOF
CIRCULATION CENTER.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AS LOW
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING REMAINS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE GULF STREAM...ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES MAY YET
DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS.

..DARROW.. 09/01/2006