[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 261956
SWODY1
SPC AC 261955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/WRN AR SWD INTO E
TX/LA/SWRN MS...

...SERN TX ACROSS SRN LA...
STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS SERN TX AND INTO SWRN LA...WITHIN
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS.  LATEST VWPS AND 18Z LAKE CHARLES
RAOB INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KM FOR LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT -- THUS SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED
INVOF THE TX/LA GULF COAST DUE TO VERY MOIST/MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS E TX THIS
EVENING -- W AND NW OF ONGOING COASTAL STORMS -- AS FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W AHEAD OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH.  ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR --
PARTICULARLY IF STORMS ORGANIZE LINEARLY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. 
STORMS WILL CONTINUE/SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER 
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT LINGERING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...NERN TX INTO WRN AR/NRN AND ERN OK...
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN OK/NWRN TX PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS OK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- NOW S OF DODGE CITY KS -- WILL LIKEWISE
SHIFT EWD...REACHING AR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FEATURE...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS RESULTING IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION.  THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO WRN AR/NERN TX/NWRN LA INTO EARLY
EVENING...AS COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS EWD
ACROSS MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING INVOF A CONSOLIDATING WARM FRONT OVER N CENTRAL/NERN OK/SERN
KS...WHILE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF OK.

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...SO AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.  ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD.  GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST OVER THE
ARKLATEX...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.  A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE --
PARTICULARLY IN BACKED SURFACE FLOW NEAR/N OF WARM FRONT. 
STORMS/SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST/SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/26/2006