[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250515
SWODY1
SPC AC 250514

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A NRN ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD AND CLOSE-OFF OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER SE CO AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS QUICKLY TRANSPORTING LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS
NORTH TX AND WRN OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR ALONG A STRONGLY CONVERGENT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS KS INTO NRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPS ALOFT SUGGESTING HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED CELLS. IF A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS IN KS...THE
THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS OK...EAST TX
AND IN THE TX COASTAL PLAINS DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 60
KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/GRAMS.. 10/25/2006