[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 220029
SWODY1
SPC AC 220027

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS CONTINUES WORKING NWD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...AHEAD OF WEAK SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW CROSSING THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.  

DESPITE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS NOW OVER SRN LA...EVENING
RAOBS INDICATE A SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  FURTHER...SOUNDINGS
REVEAL WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS SERN LA...WHICH IS LIMITING DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY.  THEREFORE...HAIL THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MINIMAL
ACROSS THIS REGION.

SOUNDINGS AND AREA VWPS DO INDICATE SUFFICIENT VEERING WITH
HEIGHT/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. ONE STORM
JUST S OF THE S CENTRAL LA COAST DID SHOW SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND ADDITIONAL ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE --
PARTICULARLY FROM SERN LA THIS EVENING...AND THEN EWD ACROSS SRN
MS/SRN AL/THE WRN FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN
A SMALL/LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA...WHERE A
LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUST OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..GOSS.. 10/22/2006