[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211937
SWODY1
SPC AC 211935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COASTAL STATES...
AT 19Z...A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND LA.  WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
ABOVE THE RESIDUAL CONTINENTAL POLAR BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND WAS
RESULTING IN ELEVATED TSTMS...LIKELY ROOTED JUST ABOVE 800 MB PER
RUC SOUNDINGS. CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WAS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO
ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS...BUT MEAGER LAPSE RATES
/WARM NOSE AROUND H7/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A DETRIMENT TO
ORGANIZED ROBUST STORMS.  

THE SMALL MCS WILL LIKELY EXPAND ENEWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY AND
TOWARD THE SERN STATES BY 12Z SUNDAY.  VEERING MEAN LAYER FLOW WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO SURGE NWD AT LOCATIONS
E OF THE MS RVR.  AS A RESULT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.  

OVERNIGHT...OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SPREAD EWD INTO
CNTRL/SRN LA.  HERE...SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ISOLD TSTMS MAY BECOME ROOTED
CLOSER TO THE SFC AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...HOWEVER.

..RACY.. 10/21/2006