[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211607
SWODY1
SPC AC 211606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES MUCH OF CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
POLAR JET SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY BY SUN
AM.  STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON UPR TX/LA COAST. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
COUPLED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FLUX CURRENTLY RESULTING IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SERN TX.

NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THRU OK/NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE SEWD
TO OFFSHORE MUCH OF TX COAST BY 12Z SUN.

WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 2000
J/KG COASTAL AREAS SERN TX/SRN LA SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT.. THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PRECLUDES MORE THAN A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS.

WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES THRU TONIGHT.  ADDITIONALLY WITH THE COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERING THE GULF MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD FOCUS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SRN TX INTO LA PRIOR TO
MOVING OFFSHORE BY SUN AM.

..HALES/GUYER.. 10/21/2006