[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211246
SWODY1
SPC AC 211244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SAT OCT 21 2006

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPR TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. THROUGH
SUNDAY AS RIDGE PROGRESSES TO THE PAC NW CST.  SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER CO SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID MS VLY LATER TODAY/
TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SPEED MAXIMA DROP S INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL
RCKYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WRN PART OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL FL ACROSS
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE
NWRN GULF.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH CSTL SECTION OF SE TX AND SRN
LA LATER TODAY AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CO DISTURBANCE
ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
OVERTAKE THE GULF BOUNDARY OVER THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...GLF CST RGN...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW WARM MOIST AIR SPREADING NNW ACROSS THE FAR
NWRN GULF TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST.  DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S SHOULD LIFT N INTO THE IMMEDIATE CSTL SECTIONS OF SE TX
LATER TODAY.  ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL...HOWEVER...
REMAIN WEAK AS REGION WILL BE ON EQUATORWARD SIDE OF CYCLONICALLY-
CURVED UPR JET.  WHILE MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND WEAK FRONTAL
UPLIFT MAY YIELD A FEW AFTN STORMS ALONG THE CSTL PLAIN...THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...BUT COUPLED WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...SETUP MAY 
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM
ALONG AND BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AS IT ACCELERATES SE
ACROSS E TX/LA AND MS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EITHER BE
ELEVATED OR WILL QUICKLY BECOME SO AS THE BOUNDARY UNDERCUTS
DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS.  PRESENCE OF 40+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR ON SRN
FRINGE OF CNTRL PLNS TROUGH AND RICH MOISTURE MAY...NEVERTHELESS
...SUPPORT A FEW CELLS WITH STRONG SURFACE WINDS DESPITE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 10/21/2006