[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201603
SWODY1
SPC AC 201602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NJ INTO SRN/ERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...NJ INTO SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND...
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN PA IN RESPONSE TO THE
VIGOROUS UPPER S/WV TROUGH NOW INTO WRN PA.  A STRONGLY FORCED LINE
OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD TO
DCA AT 15Z VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND THE EXPECTED LITTLE SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY.

AS THE 90 PLUS KT 500 MB WIND MAX AND MID LEVEL COOLING ROTATE
ACROSS NJ INTO SRN ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

BY 19Z THE LINE WILL BE PASSING THRU NYC SWD TO OFFSHORE NJ.  WINDS
AT ALL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEWD THRU INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LOW TOPPED LINE OF
CONVECTION  EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL VICINITY OF WARM FRONT.  THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM LOW IN ERN PA NEWD ACROSS SERN NY/WRN MA TO VICINITY
PWM.  FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD INTO COASTAL AREAS OF MAINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE LINE.

SINCE MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO GREATER THAN 200 J/KG ANY DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THE TROUGH AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW

..HALES/GUYER.. 10/20/2006