[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160055
SWODY1
SPC AC 160053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND
WEST TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX
AND WESTERN LA...

...SOUTHWEST NM/WEST INTO NORTHWEST TX...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER AZ/NM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO TX
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF
WEST/CENTRAL TX.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WEST TX OVERNIGHT.  POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWED AIR
MASS SOUTH OF MAF TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN
THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. 
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT REGION THROUGH THE EVENING...
STORMS MAY BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN THREAT AFTER 03Z.  STORMS
MAY ALSO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NORTHWEST TX/SOUTHWEST OK...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA...
RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LARGE MCS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF HOU.  THIS CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE UPPER TX AND SOUTHWEST LA COAST.  MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO
OVER 50 KNOTS AFTER 06Z IN THIS REGION.  VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER RAIN SHIELD.  THIS PSEUDO-TROPICAL SITUATION
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT IN
STRONGER CELLS...PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST.

..HART.. 10/16/2006