[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081625
SWODY1
SPC AC 081624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2006

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN AZ AND WRN NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOWS OVER SRN CA AND SERN GA. BOTH
CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL TURN TOWARD THE E TODAY WITH THE GA SYSTEM
MOVING OFFSHORE BY 00Z.

...EASTERN AZ/WRN NM...
MOISTURE IS SPREADING BACK INTO ERN THIRD OF AZ AS WINDS HAVE BACKED
TO THE E OF THE SRN CA UPPER LOW.  AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING FROM TUS AND GPS PW READING OVER
SRN AZ WITH GENERALLY .75 IN OR LESS. NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FROM
NWRN MEX WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON THE INCREASING SLY FLOW AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW.  COMBINED WITH STRONG INSOLATION AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COUPLED WITH 35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON E OF A LINE FROM MOGOLLON RIM
SWD TO W OF NOG. WITH POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG AND 8C/KM
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THRU THE EVENING AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM SERN CA.


...SC COAST...
COMPACT UPPER LOW SERN GA WILL BE MOVING EWD OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THRU
THIS AFTERNOON SELYS WILL CONTINUE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO SC
COASTAL AREAS. AIR MASS OFFSHORE OVER GULF STREAM IS MOST UNSTABLE
AND WITH FAVORABLE CYCLONIC SHEAR STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE SC COAST UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO/WATER SPOUT WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT MAY
FORM OVER WATER AND MOVE ONSHORE.

..HALES/BOTHWELL.. 10/08/2006