[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 081236
SWODY1
SPC AC 081235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SUN OCT 08 2006

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ AND WRN NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
MS VLY RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
CROSSED THE RCKYS YESTERDAY CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS/SRN
ONTARIO...AND AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND
AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE PAC NW.  PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW CLOSED
SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED OVER SRN CA ON SATURDAY TO LINGER OVER THAT
REGION FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS.  FARTHER E...WEAKENING OF MS VLY RIDGE
WILL ALSO PROMOTE A MODEST INCREASE IN WLY FLOW ACROSS THE SERN
U.S...AND SHOULD FORCE ANOMALOUS SYSTEM STILL DRIFTING S/SW ACROSS
SC TO TURN MORE E AND OFF THE GA CST EARLY MONDAY.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
A SYNOPTIC SETUP SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S BUT DISPLACED FARTHER SW WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SERN STATES TODAY AS DEEP CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO
WOBBLE SSW ACROSS SC/ERN GA.  WRN PART OF SYSTEM WARM SECTOR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP SW ACROSS THE SRN NC AND ERN SC CSTL PLN TODAY
BEFORE UPR SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN MORE ELY OVER GA THIS EVENING. 
WIDELY SCATTERED TRANSIENT ROTATING STORMS/WEAK SUPERCELLS PERSISTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT INVOF SLOW WWD-MOVING BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE NC
CST...AND BANDS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS REGENERATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT A BIT FARTHER W INTO THE SRN NC/ERN SC SANDHILLS/PIEDMONT. 
SURFACE HEATING LIKELY WILL ALTER THIS NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN
TODAY...BUT OVERALL SETUP SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND POSSIBLE WATERPSOUTS WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED/MORE
DISCRETE STORMS NEAR THE CST.

...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
BAND OF ENHANCED /40+ KT/ WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF SC/GA
LOW WILL OVERSPREAD CNTRL FL TODAY.  WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD PERSIST
INVOF SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR SRQ TO NEAR
VRB.  RELATIVELY WEAK...MAINLY WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ON E CST SEA BREEZE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSECTION WITH SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. 
ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO DEVELOP GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
BUT ONCE STARTED...HI PWS AND STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND BEFORE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT.

...AZ/WRN NM...
HIGHER CLOUDS OF EARLIER SUBTROPICAL PLUME ARE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF
AZ ATTM...SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY
ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.  GOES/GPS PW DATA SHOW
MOISTURE COVERING ROUGHLY THE SERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AND MOISTURE
MAY SPREAD A BIT FARTHER W WITH TIME AS CA UPR LOW EDGES ONLY SLOWLY
E TOWARD THE LWR CO VLY ...ALLOWING MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO
SPREAD N FROM SONORA.  COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE /30 KT/ SSWLY FLOW...SETUP COULD YIELD
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...SRN HI PLNS...
SATELLITE AND MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK IMPULSE WILL LIFT NNE
ACROSS NM TODAY...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL.  BUT
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN NM HI PLNS E/NE INTO W TX AND
THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE BAND OF MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE SRN HI PLNS.  A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/08/2006