[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071220
SWODY1
SPC AC 071218

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT SAT OCT 07 2006

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH LARGE RIDGE CENTRAL U.S FLANKED NEAR BOTH COASTS BY
TROUGHS. IN THE WRN U.S. CURRENTLY A STRONG IMPULSE  EJECTING FROM
WRN TROUGH AND WILL PHASE WITH NRN STREAM SUPPORTING A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW SERN MT MOVING QUICKLY INTO WESTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT.

WESTERN TROUGH THEN REFORMS AN UPPER LOW THAT DROPS SWD INTO SRN CA
TONIGHT.

THE STILL INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SSWWD INTO SERN GA TONIGHT.  CURRENT ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
 NEAR COASTAL BORDER VA/NC WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER OFFSHORE.

...SWRN U.S...
DRIER SWLY FLOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF AZ IN THE WAKE OF S/WV
THAT EJECTED FRIDAY ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  MOIST SUBTROPICAL
PLUME PERSISTS ACROSS NWRN MEXICO EXTREME ERN AZ AND NM.  AS UPPER
LOW REDEVELOPS SRN CA...PREVAILING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE
SLY BY TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASING BACK INTO AZ.

SHEAR PROFILES HAVE WEAKENED WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME TODAY AND WITH
ONLY LIMITED HEATING...INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
1000 J/KG.  SCTD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL WIND/HAIL
EVENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER DARK AND POSSIBLY SPREAD
FURTHER W INTO AZ AS BACKING FLOW TONIGHT BRINGS MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AZ.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SERN VA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SSWWD AND COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES
TO THE COAST.  ISOLATED SEVERE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AM GIVEN
THE STRONG SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
WORK SWD ALONG NRN NC COAST DURING THE DAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 10/07/2006