[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060058
SWODY1
SPC AC 060057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU OCT 05 2006

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHWEST TO GREAT BASIN...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF LAYERED CLOUD
PATTERN FROM THE BAJA NNEWD ACROSS AZ...UT...WRN CO...AND ID/WY.
THIS ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT EXISTS TO THE EAST OF A SLOW MOVING LARGE
SCALE UPPER LOW DROPPING SLOWLY SSEWD OVER THE CNTRL CA COAST.
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE PLUME AND DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD 
CONVECTION TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF AZ NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
WRN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. WITH MUCAPE VALUES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB
MUCH ABOVE ABOUT 500 J/KG...UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND
INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED FROM SURFACE LAYER. DESPITE THESE
LIMITATIONS...EXTENSIVE NATURE OF CONVECTION AND VERY STRONG SHEAR
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO WIND OR HAIL EVENTS AS SMALLER
SCALE IMPULSES PIVOT AROUND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ENHANCE
FORCED ASCENT IN MOIST WEAKLY UNSTABLE REGIME.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
SCATTERED DISORGANIZED STORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST
IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM THE APPALACHIANS EWD ACROSS VA/NC
TONIGHT AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INTENSIFIES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
AND/OR WIND APPEAR POSSIBLE. THUS...THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A
RELATIVELY SMALL LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE AREA FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY
OVER ERN TN...EWD ACROSS SWRN VA/NRN NC.

..CARBIN.. 10/06/2006