[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 040101
SWODY1
SPC AC 040059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT TUE OCT 03 2006

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY EWD
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...MID MO VALLEY AND SRN MN EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...
STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN
WI ATTM...N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR
SIOUX CITY IA ENEWD ACROSS SRN MN...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI
INTO THE CHICAGO AREA. THOUGH STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED...MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ABOVE THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER -- PER
EVENING MINNEAPOLIS AND GREEN BAY SOUNDINGS -- WHICH IS SUPPORTING
VIGOROUS STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE N OF WARM FRONT AND
SPREAD EWD ACROSS LK MI INTO LOWER MI...AS INTENSIFYING SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS IA REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN.  EVENING SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
RELATIVELY DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AND A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. 
THOUGH APPROACH OF SEVERAL UPPER FEATURES FROM THE W MAY AID IN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR SURFACE LOW AND SWWD ALONG SLOWLY
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI.

ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY...EVENING RAOBS REVEAL SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS MN AND INTO WI...WITH 40 TO 60 KT
WLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL REMAINS
LIKELY WITH ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION.

GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SRN WI AND
PERHAPS INTO NERN IA/NRN IL...WHERE SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  A FEW TORNADOES ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
INVOF WARM FRONT IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. 
DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS LK MI INTO
LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 10/04/2006