[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021242
SWODY1
SPC AC 021241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM NE IA
TO SW LOWER MI...

...NE IA TO SW LOWER MI AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
SRN STREAM OF THE WLYS...FROM SRN CA NEWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND THEN EWD TO THE MS VALLEY...WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LEE CYCLONE
INVOF N/NE NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS NEWD
FROM THE LEE CYCLONE...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS WI/MI
IN THE WAKE OF A NRN STREAM WAVE CROSSING NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT.  PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S/ ACROSS THE CORN BELT...BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER LAKE MI/SW LOWER MI MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OVER LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LLJ AND CONTINUED WAA ATOP THE COLD POOL
GENERATED BY THE CONVECTION.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NE IA/CENTRAL AND
SRN WI/NRN IL AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND NEAR RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES /85-90 F/ GRADUALLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND
A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EWD FROM NE NEB THIS MORNING TO IA/NRN
IL BY THIS EVENING.  POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY /8 C/KM LAPSE
RATES AND MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 20-30 KT/...AND CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD CONSIST PRIMARILY OF
MULTICELL CLUSTERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION OVERSPREADS
NRN INDIANA/SRN LOWER MI.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 10/02/2006