[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301758
SWODY1
SPC AC 301756

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CST MON OCT 30 2006

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG
WITH A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND FAR SRN ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW
WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY REGION.
MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXTENDING FROM NRN TX INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES BY TOMORROW MORNING.  

...OZARK REGION...
THE 12Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATED THE MOISTURE DEPTH WAS AROUND 1
KM...WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERSION ABOVE THIS LAYER. A THICK BAND OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TO INHIBIT FULL HEATING/MIXING
POTENTIAL. STEADY SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DWPTS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CANADIAN COLD FRONT AS A LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED. AT THE SAME TIME...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SUFFICIENT LIFT/COOLING WILL DEVELOP TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION LAYER RESULTING IN SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED /MUCAPES FROM 750-1000 J/KG/
MODERATE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50-60 KTS AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ROTATION. COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..CROSBIE/EVANS.. 10/30/2006