[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 300539
SWODY1
SPC AC 300537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SUN OCT 29 2006

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LWR OH VLY/OZARKS AND ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WLYS WILL
MOVE FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN EARLY MON TO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
TUE.  A STRONGER NRN STREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL AMPLIFY AS IT REACHES NRN MN BY 12Z TUE. 
THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...
REACHING A MI...SRN IL...SRN OK...NRN TX LINE BY EARLY TUE.

HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WERE ALREADY RESULTING IN
A MODEST RETURN FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN. THIS
MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAIN NWD INTO THE
OZARKS THROUGH MONDAY BELOW AN H85 CAP.  THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ZONAL MON EVE...SHUNTING THE PRIMARY MOIST
AXIS NEWD TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY.  AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADS EWD MON EVE COINCIDENT WITH THE SURGING COLD FRONT...THE
COLUMN SHOULD SATURATE.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG NWRN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME.  INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL MO WILL SPREAD
EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY MON NIGHT...WITH TRAILING DEVELOPMENT PSBL
INTO THE OZARKS AND ERN OK BY 12Z TUE TO THE N OF THE COLD FRONT. 
DESPITE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS.

..RACY.. 10/30/2006