[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260603
SWODY1
SPC AC 260601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT THU OCT 26 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN TX/OK INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND INTO CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
OVER THE OH VALLEY AREA. IN ITS WAKE...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
FROM WRN OK THROUGH WRN TX EARLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
WRN OK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY AS THE PACIFIC
FRONT MERGES WITH IT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND EWD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS NRN OK. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS PARTS OF LA AND MS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MARINE BOUNDARY
LIFTING INLAND ALONG THE LA AND MS COASTS THURSDAY EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S HAS ALREADY ADVECTED AS FAR N AS CNTRL OK WITH UPPER 60S
ACROSS N CNTRL TX. PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT
WITH MOISTURE AUGMENTED BY REMNANTS OF PAUL. A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON W OF DEEPER MOIST
PLUME FROM THE ERN HALF OF OK SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX.
HERE...MODEST 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST AS LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT IN DRY SLOT REGION. MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAMPLIFYING LEAD IMPULSE.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE AND BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
OCCUR FROM ERN OK INTO NERN TX AS THE LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER OK. THIS
ALONG WITH APPROACHING 90+ KT MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
JUST E OF SURFACE LOW AND NEAR WARM FRONT OVER NRN AND ERN OK OR SRN
KS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER NRN OK/SRN KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INCREASES. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S
ACROSS TX ALONG AND E OF PACIFIC FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN
THIS REGION WILL NOT BE A STRONG AS FARTHER N...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME
STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AS THEY CONTINUE EWD INTO ERN TX DURING THE EVENING WITH
A CONTINUING THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME OVER AR
OVERNIGHT.

OTHER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
MARINE FRONT WILL ADVECT NWD INTO SRN LA/MS DURING THE EVENING.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY
OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS SERN TX INTO LA AND SRN MS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..DIAL.. 10/26/2006